One Leaf of Time 一叶时间 #6

本周最大的热点除了G7很可能是ProPublica关于富豪如何避税的报道 —— 文章的焦点集中在超级富豪们如何利用各种手段避税 —— 财富增长课税较少,工资收入税收较多,而超级富豪的收入主要来源于资本增长,加之以借款来支付支出等手段,使得富豪们并不需要付出很多税收。文章提供了一个直接的比较:2018年,25名美国最富有的富翁所支付的税收大约是19亿美元,而拥有等量财富的美国普通家庭大约需要支付1430亿美元的税单。

对文章的争议集中在两个方面,一是这样的避税是合法的,而且并非什么不可告人的秘密;二是这样是否涉及隐私。抛开是否涉及隐私不谈 —— 从Wikileaks开始,公众人物对这个问题的立场似乎永远取决于被泄露信息者的立场跟自己是否一致。如同ProPublica指出的,报道的焦点不在于富人是否应该为某一特定的财富支付税收,而在于美国税收的累进系统失灵:拥有财富的人并没有支付更多的税收。自然而然的,富人是否应该支付更多的税收又常常会变成关于“下渗经济学”(Trickle-down economies) 的争议:富人能够更有效率的花钱,从而“先富带后富”吗?征税会阻碍富人创造财富吗?从1950年以来,美国的税收曲线不断变平缓,至于这种平缓是好事还是坏事,恐怕是克鲁格曼或者IMF才有资格争议的问题了。

这样的贫富差距导致多数美国人都认同富人和大公司没有支付足够的份额 —— 拿最近的民调来说,不同的民调显示六成八成的民众认为富有阶层应该比现在在支付更多的税收。当然了,大概98%的美国人都认为自己是中产阶级或者低收入阶层,所以这个民调并不一定说明民众认为*自己*应该多交税。这也解释了为什么财富税如此受欢迎 —— 它几乎是一个仅仅针对1%高收入者的税种。G7的一个焦点是用以限制避税天堂的多边公司所得税协议,也反映了拜登政府对收入分配的忧虑。

在大洋彼岸,中国在争论阶级固化,996,加班和躺平。高考期间火了衡水中学学生要去城里“拱白菜”的宣言,以及复旦“非升即走”政策引发的凶杀案,隐隐的都可以看到贫富差距的影子。拿三胎政策举例子,一条热门评论说,“我不买三辆劳斯莱斯,是因为限购吗”,而某一大V关于三胎的评论基本上可以概括为“生的太少你们都有房子继承,哪里还有心情奋斗加班”。从某种程度上来说,两国的舆论是具有一些对称性的:工薪阶层对收入分配不满,而公司和企业抱怨员工拿钱太多企业活不下去了

一个自然的问题是,全球的第一和第二大经济体,真的到了给员工合理的报酬和社保就活不下去的程度吗?一个合理的替罪羊就是民族主义和国际竞争:在美国,这种声音是“中国人窃取知识产权,无视环保/人权,抢走了我们的饭碗”,在中国,这种声音则是“美国人害怕中国崛起所以尽全力打击中国制造”。在这种逻辑下,企业可以要求员工和顾客都为爱国情怀买单:对员工来说,是“我们中国现在还很弱小,大家咬咬牙加加班才能赶上外国”,对顾客来说,是“大家咬咬牙多支持国产我们才能打破美国的封锁”。至于自己的技术到底是不是真的打破了封锁,是不是美国的操作系统本来就是谁都可以自由使用不存在什么技术封锁,是不是所谓的打破了封锁就是改了改名,乃至打破了美国的封锁中国的码农是不是就可以不用加班,似乎暂时还没有人觉得有寻根究底的必要。

站在21年6月看,全球经济民族主义和民粹主义的崛起似乎不可避免,相信自由贸易和全球化能够带来繁荣的人越来越少。然而各国间的贸易为什么越来越多的被看成是一场零和游戏?Klein和Pettis提供的一种解释是,全球化的贸易伴随着财富向富裕阶层的转移,导致了工薪阶层失去消费能力,内循环被转化成外循环,所以各国的经济冲突与其说是各国之间的经济冲突,不如说是各国经济不平等传导的结果。这种解释是否正确,恐怕只有各位自己去判断了。

One Leaf of Time 一叶时间 #5

I spent a little bit of time on my piano this week. Two central thoughts as I go through the practicing process are a) how many routines focus on the separation of concerns – separate hand practicing, slow practice, etudes, breaking down the piece into little snippets all point to isolate the technical/musicality as much as possible, and they are all quite useful tricks in practice. And b) how much context switching costs overhead in your brain – it is often a surprise to me how much harder and more tired hands together practice can be compared with separate hands. I think I would be a much better keyboard player if I have thought about these things in my childhood.

This brings up the question – is it that good an idea to learn piano at a very young age (3-4)? Would the students have the necessary interest, understanding, and stigma to practice wisely, and learn the actual music? Another related thing is there are a lot of “young prodigy” piano videos on Video platforms, and a lot of them are sub-par if you do not account for the age. Those videos would be much more enjoyable if the videos are actually good playing, and I do think there are suitable pieces that can be played well by young kids.

China opens up the three-kid policy this week and it met with some skepticism from the public. It seems like a very interesting footnote in a wave of propaganda pushing people to work harder and not lying down; Douban even censored multiple subforums on the “lying down” philosophies. Moreover, Shenzhen moves to eliminates the legally-bind overtime payment for gig workers. It is very ironic that on one hand, the semi-official media is arguing “China is developing quickly and as long as you work hard enough you can realize your dream”, and in the meantime, it seems that China is moving faster and faster to replenish its cheap labor because “small business cannot survive with a high labor cost”. After forty years and headlines after headlines claiming “The western world is afraid of China”, seems that China still views its huge population as the core advantage.

In other news, Friends Reunion gets censored by China because of the appearance of some problematic artists, including BTS, lady gaga, and Justin Bieber. There is a very good write-up about Asian identity in NYT. Vivo seems to have a backdoor to use its phones as a CDN. Finally, apparently, the Slack LOGO is four ducks sniffing each other’s butt in a daisy chain fashion.

See you next week.